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Phil H's avatar

Good morning on Sunday. Still rainy here. I'm earhing reports of flooding in other parts of the country. Locally, some low-lying areas are impacted. Floodwall gates have closed in the Franklinton area of Columbus.

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CynthiaW's avatar

I hope your whole area manages to keep their heads above water!

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Phil H's avatar

Thanks. Mostly areas by creeks and rivers are affected. We are on high ground in the 'burbs. Franklinton is an area across from downtown Columbus, around a bend in the Scioto River.

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CynthiaW's avatar

There were several "Hands Off" protest/rallies in this area yesterday. I support everyone's right to hold a get-together to represent their point of view, as long as it's peaceful and doesn't disrupt everyone's lives too much.

On the other hand, protests saying, "Never touch a cent of Federal spending, ever!" seem to have lost the plot.

If their point is that the Trump/Musk approach is a totally incompetent scarmable, I think they should express that more specifically, rather than going with, "Hands off our handouts!!!"

** “Everything” was a concern, longtime Charlotte resident Leslie Carter told The Charlotte Observer shortly after the rally. “Everything that has been done affects every individual in the whole country — and parts of the world,” she said. “It’s disastrous.” **

"Never change anything the government is doing," is not a winning - or functional - course of action, in my opinion.

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Kurt's avatar

Yes. I watch that stuff and see it as hopelessly detached from any policy that makes sense. There's no ideas there. It's Howard Beale, updated for the new century.

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JohnF's avatar

I don't think this is a particularly novel idea, but history has shown that the general populace never really understands an issue or the pros and cons of addressing it. This is where "leadership" comes in. I believe most people that hang out here understand the issues relating to the sustainability of debt and deficits and the challenges that will arise in addressing it. The job of leaders is to help the unruly mob understand those issues and present a coherent plan to address them. Many members of the mob will still disagree with the goal, but there's a reasonably good chance that some will accept the inevitable.

The problem with the Trump/Musk approach is that it's not at all clear what the desired outcome is. Most of their current initiatives seem to have disparate goals, some of which are contradictory. Reducing spending is a commendable goal. Preaching about "eliminating wokeness" and "stamping out DEI" while taking an axe to programs that don't actually cost a lot leads those who are already inclined to doubt the Administration's sincerity to suspect the real targets and goals.

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Kurt's avatar

Yes. Excellent thoughts.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Good observations.

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IncognitoG's avatar

This isn’t exactly like the original Tea Party movement—the one that grew out of Pork Busters, an online fan club to restrain government spending generally.

Thanks to poor or absent reporting from most of the journalistic trade, little was made of the ballooning spending in the name of covid relief and then “inflation reduction”. People are deluded and malinformed in thinking there’s not enough spending, considering it’s nearly double what it was just a decade or so ago. And that in peace time!

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CynthiaW's avatar

People also believe that all we need to do is cut defense spending (or, from another perspective, silly discretionary stuff like studies of insect homosexuality) or "make the rich pay their fair share."

Kevin Williamson has written a number of very cranky articles explaining why debt reduction requires either massively higher tax rates on low-to-mid-income households, massive cuts to entitlement spending, or both.

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Phil H's avatar

Defense of the Unites States and its interests, unlike many domestic spending programs, is a core function of the federal government. While there are probably many things that can be better managed in the defense bureaucracy and many things that can be cut without impacting military strength, focusing on major defense cuts is dangerous.

of course, Donald Trump seems to be hard at work to back out of our defense commitments in Europe, so we may get those savings anyway -- until World War III breaks out and pulls in the US (as happened in the previous 2 World Wars).

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CynthiaW's avatar

I agree with the first paragraph. I don't think any Trump administration efforts will actually result in lower spending.

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Phil H's avatar

And we may still get WWIII.

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Phil H's avatar

If we ever get the federal deficit under control, everyone's favorite program will feel the effect. Demanding one's sacred cow not be touched is as short-sighted as the Trump/Musk bull raging through the china ship of our federal government.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Many people seem not to understand that the present relationship between revenue and spending is unsustainable. Giving out a lot of money requires taking away a lot of money, first, often from the same people who are expecting to receive money, and a lot of it disappears between collection and disbursement. I don't think anyone of any ideological bent really thinks the ideal fiscal policy is to take from everyone and "give" to government employees, but a lot of that goes on.

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LucyTrice's avatar

The cluelessness of the left in the face of the wackiness of the right is just as bad as the wackiness of the right, if not worse.

Third parties just don't work.

So, what if "classical liberals" dissatisfied with the current situation began infiltrating the Democratic Party at the local level in large enough numbers to shift the mindset? Not a hostile takeover, more the flavor of a response to a natural disaster, with the added benefit helping them win elections.

I'm giving it some thought.

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DougAz's avatar

This has long been my thinking. Make the Democrats better from the inside. Then civility will emerge. And better policies like Abundance

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LucyTrice's avatar

I'm hoping more for agreement on fundamental things like "rule of law," "responsible monetary policy," and "debt management." And "Words mean things."

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IncognitoG's avatar

Garry Kasparov is attempting to put together something like you say with a bit more focus on pitching a big tent of values, rather than fighting over more or less government, more or less market.

https://thenextmove.substack.com/p/garry-kasparov-launching-the-next-move

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LucyTrice's avatar

Interesting. I have subscribed. Thanks.

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DougAz's avatar

I like that

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CynthiaW's avatar

I think Abundance is more of a philosophy than a policy, and there's many a slip 'twixt the former and the latter.

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DougAz's avatar

I agree, Abundance is a philosophy, until a great leader makes it a policy and a platform.

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CynthiaW's avatar

I think "great leader" is a red flag phrase. If there's one thing our society needs, it's to ditch leader cults wholesale from any and all institutions and organizations. Decently competent regular people do not need a great leader - even if such were more probable than a sh*tful one.

Sensible individuals with knowledge and experience of many different subjects can develop policies that will promote abundance and then - it is to be wished! - persuade voters and their representatives that this is the way to reduce the national downside and increase its upside.

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DougAz's avatar

Well, I think you are viewing “great leader” in the wrong way.

I'm sure you don't want an intellectual leader like Obama. I don't want anything like the not intellectual George Bush..

Wasn't Reagan a great leader.

Great leaders in all domains mostly have a common and important attribute. They are able to make complex topics and issues, and simplify the message.

Would Americans elect say, Bill Gates? Nope. DeSantis and Rubio? Nope. And JD Vance appeal will fade.

So who in the Democratic party would you prefer to lead?

What Conservative is moderate, tolerant to join Democrats and work to become the Democratic leader?

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CynthiaW's avatar

It would be interesting if that were possible.

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LucyTrice's avatar

Good morning all.

It is a beautiful morning hear -sunny, breezy, not cold, not hot (yet). Blooming things everywhere.

Stepping out the front door tripped a reminder for an ancient and now obsolete Sunday morning routine: "I wonder if they paper has come."

The Sunday paper: a source of collected articles compiled for a geographically based community, not an individual. That sounds appealing this morning.

(After years of supporting local journalism even as the bills got larger and the paper got smaller and the coverage more insulting, we hit our limit. Unsubscribing was not easy - "We have no record of your phone call" - and included convincing a collection agency we were not in the wrong. Not to mention all the "friendly" subsequent correspondence begging us to come back while including the reminder of our outstanding balance. For those blaming the internet for the decline of local news coverage, a visit to the BBB file on the Raleigh News & Observer might be informative.)

I think I need to go read the funnies.

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IncognitoG's avatar

Is the RN&O in the ownership of a hedge fund? “Milk it to death” seems to be their m.o.

Same here with the pricing. It went from an ever skinnier paper for 50 cents, to a dollar, to a buck and a half, to now a five-day-a-week pamphlet for two bucks, and no discount for subscribing. To my knowledge the Register-Herald of Beckley isn’t a hedge-fund property. Yet.

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LucyTrice's avatar

Bingo on the hedge fund ownership. McClatchy was bought by Chatham Asset Management in 2020.

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IncognitoG's avatar

Genuinely sorry to hear…

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CynthiaW's avatar

"I wonder if the paper has come."

I would think that about the Wall Street Journal, Monday through Saturday. Far too often, the answer was, "Nope."

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CynthiaW's avatar

Placido Domingo, everyone. It's the 31st birthday of Son A, Beau Handsome.

Now, I need to go feed the neighbor's dog and take him for a walk.

ETA: The gray cat (outdoor cat) was very excited to see me and the can of cat food. The dog was feeling excitable and tried to chase some squirrels. I'll take him out again 11:00-ish, before I go to church, and D can take over in the afternoon when she's home from camping.

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IncognitoG's avatar

Wonderful! And he doesn’t look a day over 30! 🤩🤩🤩

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CynthiaW's avatar

It's true, he doesn't.

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Phil H's avatar

Happy birthday to Son A!

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C C Writer's avatar

Hi all. I was busy all day yesterday doing paid copyediting. I did a good job. Now I get to catch up on stuff I didn't do.

Troll pschneider (on various Dispatch threads) seems to be having a bad week. Most of his comments are short. Perhaps troll HQ has stopped issuing talking points?

I sympathize with all the non-troll people who are having a bad time of it and looking ahead to more not-good stuff. I am hopeful that the backlash will be sooner and stronger than some have expected, though I can't for the life of me guess how the whole thing unfolds. I do think the more inconvenience and frustration, the better lessons people will take away about how not to risk breaking our country anymore.

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R.Rice's avatar

Out of curiosity, I scrolled a few threads looking for pschneider, not remembering seeing anything from that name. I didn't find anything. Perhaps fortunately. I did see a lot of what Jay notes below. JohnM doing a good job of checking comments that go too far. A game of whack a mole though.

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C C Writer's avatar

Now he's resorting to long verbatim posts of what someone said on Tucker Carlson. (Apparently Trump should be viewed as another Reagan.) And also some brief snark about Dispatch commenters being the "herd" and "fawning" embarrasingly. He puts the word "comments" in scare quotes, as if to suggest they aren't comments, but are something else--what?

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IncognitoG's avatar

If they hope to keep a useable comment section that everyone can enjoy, they need to be less tolerant of such characters. Bad apples can definitely spoil the bushel…

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C C Writer's avatar

I think it is better that he posts but gets almost no likes and not many replies, at least not many that take him seriously. I consider that a desirable and effective form of tolerance. Most people have caught on to his act, which in my opinion is not contagious as long as he is getting less attention than he wants. That he is posting as an assignment is easy to conclude, and cannot reflect well on his comments.

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R.Rice's avatar

He doesn't seem just a troll. He seems pathological. It's a shame for TD participants.

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C C Writer's avatar

I think it is fairly obvious what he is, provided not too many people engage with him. One could argue this example helps keep more of them away.

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C C Writer's avatar

One trick is that you can right-click on anyone's avatar and get all their recent comments to display in a Disgus window. It's easier to do if one has followed a commenter because you can look them up from your own profile, but if you can find one comment by someone you can take a look at their others. That's what I did.

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Jay Janney's avatar

I didn't know you could do that with the comments of others: Thanks!

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C C Writer's avatar

It's interesting how much stuff you can do with Disgus that they can't be bothered explaining to anyone because of that ol' Yer Sposta Know attitude that all the techies have nowadays. I have figured out a few things; I just haven't had time so far to write up an explanation and see if I get profuse thanks from Dispatch management.

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R.Rice's avatar

Thanks, found him.

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Kurt's avatar

My condolences.... :-)

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Jay Janney's avatar

I've tried a little humor, but the mood at the mothership commenters is angry. A majority of the commenters simply want to vent. I've backed way off from responding to others; I'm not interested in starting conflicts.

Plus, there's really only 2-4 arguments to be made for or against tariffs (there's a reason 190+ countries still use them), so there's really little new to glean from the comments.

If I try anything but humor people will assume it is trolling. I joked (but it is true), I dollar average my 401k, so the dip simply means more buying opportunities right now. People were furious that I wasn't outraged at lower prices. Don't get me wrong, I like bull markets, but they're not diamonds, death nor taxes (meaning they're not forever).

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DougAz's avatar

Happiness is here!

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C C Writer's avatar

Your choice of humor is fine with me.

If someone is "furious" at me even though I know I did nothing wrong, it's their problem, not mine. Furious at some of us for not being outraged, are they? How droll and testosterone-y in their expectations of others. (There's a regular commenter over on the mothership, she doesn't live here anymore, but she habitually issues all of us orders. Yeah, sure, I'll do that real soon now because you said so.)

Or else what, angry ones? They can't clonk me over the head in online comments, can they? I can shrug off name-calling from fools. I could tell them to go &%$#! their ^$@)? and no bot will censor that because I already did it myself. (I didn't even have an expression in mind, it's just randomly arranged keyboard symbols.) But usually I don't bother, because I don't care if fools are impressed with me or not.

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CynthiaW's avatar

"Furious at some of us for not being outraged, are they?"

It seems as though the two types of people are, "Those in a huge fuss," and "Those who are, like, whatever." Even agreeing with someone may not be enough, if they are in a huge fuss and you are not.

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C C Writer's avatar

If someone feels like being in a huge fuss, I'm not going to tell them not to be. They apparently get something out of it. What they do not get out of it is the right to insist I get in a huge fuss too. Don't they have the courage of their fuss? Sometimes fuss is a high and lonely destiny.

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Kurt's avatar

I am fuss averse. It goes nowhere. At present, though, I am a tad disjointed.

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C C Writer's avatar

There's a lot of that going around. But it's nothing for anyone to take offense at.

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CynthiaW's avatar

I tell the kids that sometimes.

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C C Writer's avatar

Not a starfish or anything like that. A mole. I don't think I've ever seen a mole in person.

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Jay Janney's avatar

They always run from me, so all I ever see are molasses. I didn't think I looked that scary!

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M. Trosino's avatar

So, making poor, defenseless little moles the butt of jokes now, are we?

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Kurt's avatar

:-)

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R.Rice's avatar

Our family encountered first real world impact of the tariffs already today. My son-in-law is a mechanical engineer working with advanced camera systems for industrial automation. He's been expecting a shipment of precision parts that he can't get anywhere but Asia. But today he received a notice from DHL:

"Your shipment has been placed on hold as additional information is required to complete the USA Customs clearance process."

His comment is that his job is about to get a lot harder.

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IncognitoG's avatar

Seen on TwiX just now:

Q: > I want to ask some of you: are the tariffs in the room with you right now? <

A: > No they're in the room with my HVAC guys who just told me they can't honor the $15k to replace my broken system because their supplier jumped prices and so now it's $22k.

They're apparently in the room with every other HVAC company inside 75 miles, too. <

https://x.com/CrownMaybe/status/1908227273049993551

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R.Rice's avatar

There's gonna be some pissed off homeowners - and voters.

Edit: and parents of kids with hearts set on Nintendos

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CynthiaW's avatar

I think children's lives would be better without an upgraded Nintendo Switch, but Vlad does not agree. I'm not sure how he plans to pay for it, whenever the product is released. Maybe he'll cash out some of his earnings from the Magic: The Gathering card-trading site.

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CynthiaW's avatar

The Nintendo Switch 2 is also delayed, according to Vlad.

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C C Writer's avatar

I'll bet the social media are abuzz, as the tiresome stuff starts to hit people where they live even if they thought it couldn't be relevant.

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CynthiaW's avatar

I expect people are being told to Trust Trump's Plan.

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C C Writer's avatar

I wonder how much of the core target group for Nintendo is inclined to accept that advice.

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CynthiaW's avatar

The target audience for the Nintendo switch seems to be just about everyone under 40.

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C C Writer's avatar

Well, if they follow the adage not to trust anyone over 30, then possibly they will be skeptical about Trump's plan.

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Kurt's avatar

They should. It's going to be beautiful, the most beautiful thing in the entire history of the country. People are going to think it's so beautiful, they'll name their children Tariff. People will be so tired of winning, they'll beg Trump to stop because they just can't handle any more winning.

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M. Trosino's avatar

You're selling Trump's tariff policy just a tad short in that first line, Kurt. Here, let me help...

It's going to be beautiful, the most bigly beautiful thing in the entire history of the world.

There. Fixed it.

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Kurt's avatar
Apr 6Edited

Better, but maybe "solar system" instead of world. No...Universe. The most bigly beautiful thing the entire history of the universe.

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CynthiaW's avatar

It wouldn't surprise me if there ended up being children named Tariff by parents who have no idea what the word means but think it sounds cool, a bit like Sheriff.

My former neighbor, matriarch of the Redneck Reality Show family, had a grandson named Craven.

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IncognitoG's avatar

There are quite a few countries in the world where strange names are rejected by government registration offices. They tell parents that “Beelzebubba”, for instance, won’t float: Back to the drawing board.

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Kurt's avatar

Craven. That's good.

In the small town I escaped, a local named his son "Drakar" as in Drakar Noir, the cologne. Drakar had a brief moment of glory in the WFC Octagon cage match thing.

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Jay Janney's avatar

Got back from walking. It's wet out there. The flood plane behind our house (We're on a hill, so we're fine) is more underwater than most folk's 401k plans the past few days! The soccer park is completely flooded, the concession stand flooded, etc.

Some squirrels in our backyard were marching 2 x 2. I hope that doesn't mean anything! 😬

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DougAz's avatar

The rain in Ohio stays mostly in "de plane, de plane".

Also, one of the great reads I highly recommend is Harry Truman's semi-autobiography, "Plane er...umm Plain Speaking".

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Jay Janney's avatar

I prefer de plain M & Ms, but sometimes I mispell them.

For years I taught my daughter they were W & Ws; her Kindergarten teacher didn't appreciate that!

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DougAz's avatar

Nice!

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Kurt's avatar

(plain)

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R.Rice's avatar

Just got back from walking the dog too. Beautiful day. Started listening to a podcast but switched to Pandora - Jimmy Buffet "He Went To Paris" song list. Because I do like the quiet, clean country living. We also walked past a soccer field, but with a game going on with a bunch of 8 yr olds. It was quite enjoyable to sit and watch them for a bit.

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Jay Janney's avatar

As long as the parents are chill, 8-12 is a great age to watch most youth sports. But when my son was younger, I saw a lot of angry parents. I read my kindle a lot when they are woofing.

Ten years ago we had a game when it was over 100 (Farenheit, not Celsius). The referees actually called for breaks in each half, due to the heat. At halftime I drove to the local Speedway and bought 24 bottles of Gatorade. I distributed them to our team, and had about 5 left, so I offered one to the three referees (they saw me hand them out to our team). They thanked me.

Incredibly a parent hollered at them for taking a free gatorade from me. The referee walked over them, and told if he thought he could be bought with a bottle of gatorade, well, he was disgusted. He asked if they preferred he call the game here due to the heat (we were leading it would be a victory for us). The parent shut up quickly. The ref got it, I was simply being humane, not trying to buy calls. We won anyway.

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R.Rice's avatar

I coached girls (softball) and boys (baseball) for about 6 years. In my experience it was when the kids reached 11-12 the parents were unbearable. My very very best friend and I barely talked for 2 years because he turned into a complete ass once his kid was on the team. So stupid.

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CynthiaW's avatar

"when the kids reached 11-12 the parents were unbearable"

Maybe that's around the time when the mindset changes from "child is having fun playing a game" to "child is doing something super important that's going to have a huge impact on his future life prospects."

I saw a sign recently on a warehouse-looking building on the US Highway: "Hyper Elite Training Academy", with a subtitle something like, "For those who are intensely serious about soccer training."

My personal view is that, while exposure to an activity - like science competition - may lead a child to discover something that will matter in his adult life, his actual performance in competition is really not that big a deal. Winning first place in the region feels good, and it gets you a prize of being signed up for Drivers Ed again because you showed you can succeed on a test, goofball, but simply knowing soil science exists can change your life.

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M. Trosino's avatar

It seems that for some parents, when their kid starts into sports, they (the parent) regresses in age with each passing year at a rate that assures that by the time the kid is about to become a teenager, the parent is behaving like a spoiled toddler that's had its pacifier stolen.

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Jay Janney's avatar

I don't get those parents. I was blessed, my youngest was such a nice kid that it was hard for other players to get mad at him. He was competitive, but his opponents nearly always enjoyed competing with him.

One of my favorite moments: one of our opponents had a double homicide of students that week, it was an emotional game. They had a player (who plays Division 1 bball now), who put up 38 points against our team. During pauses and lulls, my son and he would joke back and forth. The coach started to pull him with 4 minutes left and a 25 point lead. My son walked over to the coach, telling him we wouldn't be upset if they let him try to get 40, to leave him in. They did, he took 3 shots and missed them all, then went to sit down. After the game both teams prayed together.

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R.Rice's avatar

A more humorous story - another year my kid was drafted, and the coach asked me to help. It was the least talented group of kids ever assembled. I asked the head coach - what the heck, how'd you pick the players? His answer - "they all have hot moms". Literally included a former playboy model. We didn't win a game. Years later the head coach was convicted of embezzlement of funds as ad-litem trustee for minors litigation settlement funds.

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R.Rice's avatar

It's not like there are a lot of times I can point to that I've made a difference. (I mean it's not like I can manage Envirothon kids!) But one year we had just finished little league draft, and the commish comes and tells me "by the way, that kid you drafted is a potential problem. Last year his dad threatened a coach with a bat... be careful". I was like - thanks? But as it turned out their family had endured a terrible divorce and the kid was traumatized. And the previous coach was an ass, not playing weaker kids, berating them etc etc. I worked hard to make the practices and games fun for ALL the kids, no matter their talent. At the end of year party, the "trouble" kid came up and gave me a huge hug and his dad was next, hugging me and smiling. A very little thing, but made me feel like I'd done a good thing for a kid going through a tough time. Hey, made me feel good.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Fascinating.

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Kurt's avatar

Star nosed mole...that was interesting, particularly the smelling in water by exhaling and re-inhaling the bubbles with scent molecules.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Seems really weird, doesn't it?

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Kurt's avatar

Top fiver in the weirdness category, so far.

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M. Trosino's avatar

Latest on the south sea trade war launched by Donald Trump and his team of economic advisors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ5QBMl5K1I

Trump's private response to a question about his economic team upon being informed by Pete Hegseth of a now likely need to send the Marines to put down an island revolt...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw-sh47jHbg

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IncognitoG's avatar

Museum of Idiots: a love song

https://youtu.be/BHcWXRCsknE?si=BDjmc8jrL43FZGtf

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Kurt's avatar

I want to laugh, but the laugh keeps getting cut short by intruding reality.

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BikerChick's avatar

You know how we hear glyphosate is bad for us? I’ve always wondered if it’s so toxic, why hasn’t it killed the earthworms? Am I bringing too simplistic (like usual?)

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Kurt's avatar

It is killing the earthworms, just not like an insecticide which is immediate. It screws up their reproductive cycle and causes a major slowdown in their activity. It's a big problem with worms, which Monsanto/Bayer denies, of course.

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BikerChick's avatar

One summer night my husband and I walked barefoot out in the golf course and all I felt was icky goo and I flashed my light down and saw a bazillion earthworms! Eeek.

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Kurt's avatar

Yeah, gross...yet wonderful. Absent earthworms, humans wouldn't have made it. They're another of those little miracles no one thinks about.

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JohnF's avatar

OK, that is one seriously weird little dude - a large, fat, blind rat with an octopus grafted onto its nose. I appreciate the speediness of the little guy, but realistically, how fast does one need to move to feed on earthworms and larvae?

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M. Trosino's avatar

Faster than any (coughs, clears throat) early birds, obviously.

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R.Rice's avatar

Yes, fascinating little dude! Can you imagine how scary that thing would be if were 7 feet long instead of 7 inches!

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Kurt's avatar

I'm thinking a remake of Galaxy Troopers, but instead of giant bugs...giant star nosed moles.

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Jay Janney's avatar

Marvel could turn one into an antagonist in a future movie.

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Phil H's avatar

Good morning. 56 this morning. Rainy last night and all day today. My basement sump pump is running nonstop.

For those who want the license number of the big truck that ran over the markets (the Dow dropped 10% in the last 2 days), the mothership has an article with the formula the Trump administration used to calculate the tariffs levied against each country. It’s simplistic, but with 2 Greek letters thrown in to make it look impressive and scientific. (Spoiler alert: It’s not).

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IncognitoG's avatar

Morning. 60 here and humid. Storm front heading this way, probably tomorrow. Supposed to be near 80ºF today.

The *true* formula involves measuring the gaseous emissions bubbling up from Trump’s basal ganglia.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Good morning. Cloudy and 70-ish here, supposed to be 84 later today. I have errands to do before choir. I need to get F out of bed: he wants to buy snacks and soda to take to his friend's house later.

ETA: I fixed it.

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John M.'s avatar

So close. It could have been 'get (the) F out of bed'.

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BikerChick's avatar

Hey you guys Cynthia made a typo!

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CynthiaW's avatar

True.

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M. Trosino's avatar

Done on purpose to keep 'em on their toes, right?

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Bill Mc's avatar

Great title for today's post!

Another life lesson learned: U.S. Presidents can drastically impact the economy. My prior position was that their influence was more subtle and longer term . . . assuming they would try to improve the economy. Now I know a President can create inflation and put us at risk of worldwide recession with just the t-word.

Would love to hear from any of you astute people how this can end positively.

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Brian's avatar

Here’s a comment from JG’s column last night, from a person who’s often pretty obnoxious. But I’m looking for anything to give me a reason for optimism and I found it interesting and possibly plausible. My “wait and see” approach is shaken after the last couple of days and maybe I’m reaching but:

“The US Government received more money for a bond today than it did yesterday, and the US Government obligation to pay interest has shrunk. I had lunch with a good friend today, who has access to Trump financial officials, and he said this is the real purpose of the tariffs — i.e., restructure the US balance sheet, shrink the deficit and reduce the amount of short-term debt owed by the US Government.

I was told that if the average US citizen understood how fragile the US financial system is, especially from the burden of short-term debt, that this could cause a panic, followed by an economic crash. Trump is behaving like a magician — i.e., asking people to focus on potential trade benefits and increased jobs, while doing financial legerdemain.

...Let me use a crude, oversimplified example, to explain what I thinkTrump is trying to do. Imagine that you are buying a home, and you have a 10-year $500,000 dollar interest only loan at 4.5%. At this rate, your monthly payment is $1,875. Now, what happens if that rate falls to 2.5%? Your new payment would be $1,041.67. You would have gained almost $10,000 dollars in your pocket by the end of the year (assuming you did not spend the savings). In other words, Trump is using tariffs in a bid to refinance the US debt at a lower rate. Remains to be seen if this works.

What happens if you are paying 4.5% interest on 8 trillion dollars in one year? You will pay $360 billion in interest. Let’s drop the rate to 2.5% for one year. You are now paying $200 billion in interest. Hell, with savings like that, Trump can buy a fleet of new aircraft carriers (kidding). That is what Trump is trying to accomplish. [Note, if I screwed up the math I will rely on you financial geniuses out there to set me straight.]

Refinancing onerous debt is something Trump has done multiple times in his business career, and managed to become a billionaire in the process. Whatever objections you have about other Trump policies, particularly Ukraine and the Israel/Palestine war, don’t make the mistake of assuming he’s stupid on this one and does not know what he is doing. Still, it is a gamble. We’ll have to wait a couple of months to see it this was a desperate Hail Mary pass or a shrewd, albeit risky, financial deal."

https://sonar21.com/some-observations-on-tariff-hysteria/

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M. Trosino's avatar

RE: My “wait and see” approach is shaken after the last couple of days

My own "wait and see" approach remains rock solid. I've been "waiting to see how much worse it can get", and every day there's evidence pointing to a consistent answer: A lot.

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Kurt's avatar
Apr 5Edited

Okaaay.... maybe that all works if the other side of the deal sits on their hands and acquiesces....which doesn't seem to be happening. Equations usually have 2 parts, don't they? Or, are do we believe in magic?

That part about his genius in refinancing debt....it's easier when Deutsche Bank is floating laundered funds from Russian oligarchs. Go ahead, insist I'm crazy. I don't care. No decent bank would loan him money.

I'm sticking with "he's stupid and doesn't know what he's doing on this one."

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JohnF's avatar

It sounds good in theory, but the problem is that someone else has to be on the other end of that deal. Assuming that it was actually possible to refinance $23T+ in debt overnight, someone has to be willing to buy a bond that pays only 2.5% (a lot of someone's, actually). Such a bond would likely drop in price quickly, so that it would yield 4.5-5%

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Jay Janney's avatar

It depends on what is seen as the market rate. Prices fall if the stated rate is viewed as being below the market rate. Because the US t-bill is considered risk-free, it is very influential in setting the market rate.

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JohnF's avatar

True, but the market still sets that rate. In the example given, the quoted commenter says "let's say we drop the rate to 2.5%" and then goes on to say that this will result in savings of $160B/year. However, that assumes that if the US were to try to sell bonds in the current market that only returned 2.5%/year that anyone would buy them, particularly when the risk of further inflation (along with the risks that Trump is going to blow up the value of the USD) is still pretty high.

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R.Rice's avatar

Interesting thanks! But these things don't happen in isolation. If the tariffs result in a material decline in GDP, the reduction in revenue (taxes) could easily outweigh the lower rate benefit. If lower debt burden is the goal maybe they should do it the old fashioned way with higher inflation.

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JohnF's avatar

The textile mills, tanneries, and shoe and clothing factories that were around in William McKinley's day are going to make a comeback. America will be great again.

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IncognitoG's avatar

Looking forward to the buggy whips handcrafted in poor houses by promising urchins.

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Jay Janney's avatar

I do get a little nervous if the people buying buggy whips are also into BDSM. If they're consenting adults, it's not my business, but...

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JohnF's avatar

There are going to be a lot of good American jobs involved in the building of poorhouses. And this will finally get the promising urchins off my lawn!

MUWA! (Make Urchins Work Again!)

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CynthiaW's avatar

I could recommend some specific urchins.

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JohnF's avatar

D, E, & F?

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CynthiaW's avatar

Just to start with.

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C C Writer's avatar

Or sea.

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Rev Julia's avatar

If this motivates Congress to take back their constitutional role instead of shilling for the imperial presidency, it would be a great thing.

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BikerChick's avatar

I heard one theory that he’s doing this to lower bond rates? Yeah, right.

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Rev Julia's avatar

Pure malevolence seems more likely.

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Kurt's avatar
Apr 5Edited

I never attribute to malice that which can be satisfactorily explained by stupidity.

Although, on this one, it's probably a combo.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Dumbth.

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Phil H's avatar

Sweet Meteor of Death?

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Jay Janney's avatar

Are these moles really faster than a teenbro at eating?

Asking for a friend fearful the tariffs will increase teenbro feeding costs, of course.

Power went out at 11pm last night, so I went to bed. it came back on five minutes later. 2 minutes after that my daughter walked in to tell me the power was back on. I knew already much to her disappointment.

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CynthiaW's avatar

If teenbros are competing for worms with star-nosed moles, the 'bros are out of luck.

We had a widespread two-minute outage last weekend. It's annoying having to reset all the clocks!

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CynthiaW's avatar

Good morning. Happy Saturday to all! D is on a camping trip with the Scouts, so I have to do her dog-walk job for a couple of days, unless I can delegate it to a brother. We'll keep the pay.

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IncognitoG's avatar

If the dogs are as well behaved as the Scouts, it should be an easy and relaxing experience.

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CynthiaW's avatar

It's an old and boring dog.

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Kurt's avatar

What was that thing about old dogs and new tricks...(?)

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CynthiaW's avatar

It doesn't do any tricks.

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The original Optimum.net's avatar

Based on the market's reaction to the tariffs, we may all need to become dog walkers...

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M. Trosino's avatar

Another thought about the market... if it keeps reacting this way long enough, Haitians might not be the only ones eating dogs and cats.

Out-of-work dog walker holds up sign at highway intersection: Will Work For Food

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M. Trosino's avatar

Yeah. The market's pretty much gone to the dogs, hasn't it?

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JohnF's avatar

The trick is to be able to quickly identify your charges once they've been let loose at the dog park. You need collar ID

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IncognitoG's avatar

How fetching.

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The original Optimum.net's avatar

I’m a good boy. Yes I am. A good boy.

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Phil H's avatar

I don’t know whether to 😂 or 😭

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The original Optimum.net's avatar

I recommend the former. It gets you through a lot more than the latter.

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Phil H's avatar

So does drinking. (Too bad I gave it up for Lent).

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Kurt's avatar

:-)

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CynthiaW's avatar

I agree, and it doesn't make your nose run.

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CynthiaW's avatar

I've been telling the Offspring for years that, if they think the country is falling to pieces, they need to have a skill doing things that rich people will pay other people to do for them. We walked our own dog.

We also do our own yardwork and shopping and housecleaning and laundry and childcare, etc. All those things "we need" illegal immigrants to do "for us," which is a slur about people who think that, not about illegal immigrants.

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Kurt's avatar

Survival response mechanisms in youngsters aren't looking good. The one's that believe the world is collapsing into dystopia all live in big cities and have no practical skillset whatsoever beyond being online, and do not apparently have much interested in developing such skillsets.

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BikerChick's avatar

I don’t farm out any chores. Never have, never will unless ill health prevents me.

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Jay Janney's avatar

The fascinating part about semi-rural midwest living are the sheer number of lawn people who are not illegal immigrants. They're generally white males in their 40s-60s, own a big pickup truck, and drive a ZTR.

Our daughter dog-sits or cat-sits for friends on vacation: easy gig money.

We used one for 3 summers many years ago (I forget the reason): his last year we let him know our youngest wanted to mow, so the following year we'd turn it over to him. The mow guy smiled, and wished our son well. He finished the year fine. We see him from time to time, he asks how the kids are doing.

All my neighbors but two (elderly retirees) mow their own yards. Most everyone has a riding mower; over half are John Deere. Did you ever notice John Deere blend in well with daffodils?

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LucyTrice's avatar

We have over an acre and are on out 2nd riding mower in over 25 years. I have never driven either one of them. There is something satisfying in push mowing, in becoming intimately familiar with every inch of the yard.

But mowing is not my job at this point and I'm good with that.

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Jay Janney's avatar

tbf, I did inherit our ZTR. I have a push mower, and Katie gets worried about me mowing. I remind her that is time not spent with the chain saws, but it doesn't seem to help for some reason. 🤔

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LucyTrice's avatar

A long time ago, my brother pointed out that a riding mower meant more time and energy left for fun stuff. Priorities.

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CynthiaW's avatar

In our subdivision of small lots, a surprising number of people own lawn tractors.

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Jay Janney's avatar

We have just shy of an acre, about a 1/4 of it is wooded. With a riding mower about 40 minutes to mow with the ZTR. Most houses in our 'hood are at least half an acre, several are larger.

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CynthiaW's avatar

Lots in our neighborhood are much smaller.

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Phil H's avatar

Same here. I don’t.

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The original Optimum.net's avatar

Well said and done. Gonna be interesting, and not necessarily in a good way...

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CynthiaW's avatar

D's customer doesn't count as "rich people." He lives on our street. She also feeds a cat sometimes for a retired couple nearby.

I think many things are being done very badly, world-events-wise.

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Kurt's avatar

Yeah, it's jungle sometimes it makes me wonder how I keep from goin' under....Grandmaster Flash

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