Excess elites
No sooner is some social phenomenon described and named than it gets overused and exhausted in our online discussion, turned into a useless cliché, sapped of any actual meaning, but used as a convenient whip with which partisans and ideologues flog each other and various expired equines. One of these unfortunate terms is “elites.”
There were at one time such beings known as “elites.” They were generally understood as those who were in the upper ranks of the powerful and influential. They were the smart ones, the intellectually and academically accomplished. The elites were the ones in a society chosen by birth or acclaim as the best and brightest.
But at some point, they also became the objects of criticism, frequently in terms of barely disguised envy. As a social category or class, these days, they serve as the universal bad guys—rhetorically, at least—the ones the speaker believes have too much power and influence, not to mention excessive wealth, depending on the rhetorical need.
Along with terminology, social theories these days can also enjoy the internet arc of popularity, overuse, cliché, and uselessness. One of these theories involving elites was described by sociologist/historian Peter Turchin: elite overproduction.
Turchin observed that societies experience episodes of political and social instability when they produce too many elites. He developed statistical models to describe the phenomenon. The excess of elites is measured in terms of the jobs available to them in managing government and social oversight. When there are too many of them, some elites fail to get the jobs they’ve come to believe they were entitled to. This causes frustration to build among the jilted elites, and they use their talents to organize power centers outside the traditional structures with which to challenge their rival elites—the ones actually in charge. For now.
While the theory is backed by a lot of mathematical and statistical analysis, critics point out that it does not have any demonstrated predictive skill. With all the numbers available about the economy and society these days, the theory of elite overproduction cannot tell us when and if we are on the brink of revolution or uprising. Some have suggested the rise of Trump—as well as his January 6 insurrection—was the result of rival elites’ actions, for instance, but this conclusion after the fact is not itself a prediction, and thus falls short of confirming the theory.
At any rate, considering yesterday’s discussion on this blog about AI and its apparent disruptive potential: if there really are too many elites with too little to do, will bots that can take over the writing, thinking, and creating lead to more social instability? Can we expect more political upheaval among rival elite power centers, at least in a way obviously implicating elite overproduction? What can we give the excess elites to do to keep them busy enough that they won’t make a mess? Are there any asteroids to mine? Suggestions welcome.
RE: bots, elites
We'll likely limp along more or less ok until the AI bots booting the elites from the jobs to which they feel entitled start mimicking said elites to the point that the bots gain a sense of entitlement as well. All bets are off at that point.
Meantime, as to what to do with excess elites...maybe Elon can start regular and dependable transport to Mars, providing deep discounts to excess elites and encouraging them to go set up shop there. Surely there must be things that need managing on the Red Planet. And if not, well if the elites can't invent something to manage, they aren't really the real McCoy to begin with, me thinks.
Afternoon everyone. Today is Fly a Kite day. I drew a picture of my boss and I flying kites outside on his numbers sticky and suggested we should do it, for various reasons...silly fun, relaxing, etc.
I saw a flock of birds yesterday outside our building and today I saw a few in the trees, I haven't seen birds for 2 months ( no idea where the hawks went, I am pretty sure they hang around in the winter)...it is probably the unseasonal weather...Monday it was normal winter, yesterday it was a high of 54, today is is upper 40's and tomorrow it supposed to a high of 58, but with wind and rain.
This is not normal NE OH February weather, but it works for me...lol...the first fay of spring is only a little over a month away...
Elite...it is overused, but, when I was younger it was used for "ordinary" people who excelled scholastically or were considered above average intelligence or were financially well to do...I think generically "elite"" means: rare and positive attributes, at least it did then. Though they also arranged the Jr High sections of kids for home room and subject matters by the IQ of the students too...I thought it was a bad idea even then, even though I was in the top section...because it created resentment/despair at the bottom, some arrogance at treating those below at the top and self important behaviors...and divided the whole class...( there were a lot of Jr High school students then ..there were 8 sections in both 7th and 8th grade, at 9th, which at the time was where 9th grade was put , in the Jr High, not HS, they stopped doing it.
There were always be gifted people, and people with great successes financially and socially, but there is no reason to resent them and plenty of reasons to learn from them...though it would help if they could keep their egos in check...