Ukraine update
The Ukrainian war for self preservation grinds on to its first anniversary. The fighting continues without making top international headlines in American news media. That said, there is a sense that this moment is a mere still before the storm, that the Russian invaders are preparing for a major offensive once the first round of 300,000 conscripts have been trained.
One assessment of the war comes to us in the form of David French’s Tuesday evening newsletter (behind the The Dispatch paywall). David reminds us that there hasn’t been a comparably long running, intense war in a very long time. He sketches three scenarios based on relative resolve between the Russians on one side, and the Ukrainians with their backers on the other.
Another assessment comes to us from Andrew Michta, a distinguished scholar of Eastern European affairs and a national security expert, which depicts a bogged down conflict that now effectively amounts to a war of attrition. As such, he argues, the winning side will be the one that has enough ammunition to persist. (In this particular essay, he doesn’t describe the harsher math of attrition: the tallies of death inflicted on each side.) Michta remarks on the ammo trend:
At the height of the summer, when Moscow took a page from the Soviet playbook to substitute a massive artillery hammer for maneuver, the Russians were firing some 60,000 rounds per day, occasionally more. Today the Russians shoot at most 20,000 rounds a day – often fewer, and they are digging deep into their own residual stockpiles to sustain even that limited rate. All the while, Russia is shopping around the world for munitions, including in Iranand North Korea.
He estimates Russia has used up its own stockpiles as well as those of Belarus.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and E.U. member states have contributed lots of ammunition and materiel, but the Europeans in particular he says should be increasing production to make sure Ukraine is well supplied. As he says, America already has obligations to supply Taiwan, too. Moreover, the Europeans are the ones who will be dealing directly with the outcome of this Russian adventure.
[T]he burden has to fall on Europe.
The conflict in Ukraine is a system-transforming war whose outcome will define the Continent’s security for a generation or more. Time for all European governments, not just those on the Eastern frontier, to understand what is at stake and act accordingly.
What an awful day I have had, and the rain is supposed to turn to snow tonight and it might get dicey driving in the morning, just what I need...lol
Greetings and Salutations to all anyway
I suppose I should confess.
When I want to secure classified documents, I leave them atop my gas stove.