A powerful "double-barreled" storm system continues to lift into the Lower Great Lakes, with a leading center of low pressure currently centered over Lincoln, IL and a secondary, deepening center of low pressure located just to the north of Paducah, KY. An unusually large combined area of deformation-induced precipitation stretches from far eastern Nebraska to Lower Michigan. Based on recent dual-pol radar data and surface observations, the rain/snow line lifted far further north than in previous forecasts and is currently located from Mendota to Schaumburg. The further-northward progression is a result of the occluded warm front of the leading area of low pressure surging northward, causing temperatures to rise into the mid to even upper 30s. Meanwhile, steady snow continues to fall northwest of the aforementioned line, though with less accumulative efficiency than before owing to near-surface temperatures just above freezing (Rockford only picked up 0.3" of an inch of snow in the past hour in spite of visibilities below a mile).
Going forward, the rain/snow line is expected to gradually shift south and east with time. However, snow accumulation efficiency this afternoon will continue to be stunted by above-freezing surface temperatures. With that in mind, a slushy 1 to 3 inches of snow may fall through sunset where snow continues, highest near the Wisconsin state line and away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. Meanwhile, an expansive dry slot currently along the Missouri/Illinois border is expected to lift northeastward into northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana in tandem with the remnant area of leading surface low pressure this evening (e.g. after 5-6pm), leading to a rapid erosion of rain and snow. With the path of the surface pressure trough in line to cross overareas that picked up 4 to 8 inches of snow this morning and in an area where temperatures will remain above freezing, prospects forrapid fog development (including some dense) appear to be quickly rising for parts if not a majority of our area. For this reason, opted to throw in patchy fog into our gridded database keeping in mind such a threat may need more attention going forward.
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That's all very nice, but if you can't tell me exactly how many snowflakes will fall on my block between 6 and 8 p.m. tonight, then you're just an incompetent weather song-and-dance man. /sarc
Great tunes!! Those were fun. Any of you watching "The Crown?" I can't get last night's episode out of my head featuring Lillibet and Margaret. There are some episodes they knock out of the park, even if they do take liberty with the facts. Off to shovel, round two today. My weather app shows 11.1' expected. That will give us around 2 feet for the week.
Discussion:
A powerful "double-barreled" storm system continues to lift into the Lower Great Lakes, with a leading center of low pressure currently centered over Lincoln, IL and a secondary, deepening center of low pressure located just to the north of Paducah, KY. An unusually large combined area of deformation-induced precipitation stretches from far eastern Nebraska to Lower Michigan. Based on recent dual-pol radar data and surface observations, the rain/snow line lifted far further north than in previous forecasts and is currently located from Mendota to Schaumburg. The further-northward progression is a result of the occluded warm front of the leading area of low pressure surging northward, causing temperatures to rise into the mid to even upper 30s. Meanwhile, steady snow continues to fall northwest of the aforementioned line, though with less accumulative efficiency than before owing to near-surface temperatures just above freezing (Rockford only picked up 0.3" of an inch of snow in the past hour in spite of visibilities below a mile).
Going forward, the rain/snow line is expected to gradually shift south and east with time. However, snow accumulation efficiency this afternoon will continue to be stunted by above-freezing surface temperatures. With that in mind, a slushy 1 to 3 inches of snow may fall through sunset where snow continues, highest near the Wisconsin state line and away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. Meanwhile, an expansive dry slot currently along the Missouri/Illinois border is expected to lift northeastward into northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana in tandem with the remnant area of leading surface low pressure this evening (e.g. after 5-6pm), leading to a rapid erosion of rain and snow. With the path of the surface pressure trough in line to cross overareas that picked up 4 to 8 inches of snow this morning and in an area where temperatures will remain above freezing, prospects forrapid fog development (including some dense) appear to be quickly rising for parts if not a majority of our area. For this reason, opted to throw in patchy fog into our gridded database keeping in mind such a threat may need more attention going forward.
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That's all very nice, but if you can't tell me exactly how many snowflakes will fall on my block between 6 and 8 p.m. tonight, then you're just an incompetent weather song-and-dance man. /sarc
Great tunes!! Those were fun. Any of you watching "The Crown?" I can't get last night's episode out of my head featuring Lillibet and Margaret. There are some episodes they knock out of the park, even if they do take liberty with the facts. Off to shovel, round two today. My weather app shows 11.1' expected. That will give us around 2 feet for the week.