Carbon Calmness

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Carbon Calmness

Quite a few of the climate change experts I think of as honest and knowledgable happen to agree with my opinions on climate change. “What a surprise!” I hear you swoon.

One I mentioned before is Roger Pielke, Jr. Another I also mentioned before is Roy Spencer. Dr. Spencer posted a graph back in June to illustrate the point that the climate scare scenarios we have been subjected to are actually based on the most extreme projections of how fast the carbon dioxide levels might rise in the environment due to human activity. That is, not even the International Panel on Climate Change considers these scenarios to be at all likely, which means that the panic narrative lies far outside the bounds of reason.

The abbreviation SSP in the graph stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, and it is an estimated level of carbon dioxide in the air produced by economic growth under various assumptions. As Spencer says:

I haven’t been able to find a good, recent graph showing how actual global CO2 emissions compare to those scenarios. So I made one. In the following plot I show estimates of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use through 2023, and EIA projections every 5 years from 2025 through 2050 (green).

The graph shows clearly how the actual CO2 levels increased on the very low end of the projected scenarios over the past 15 years, and draws an extrapolated line from them. There is no evidence to support any projections of drastic increases. Yet that is what the alarmists base their case on.

Does this mean there’s nothing to worry about? No. What if there’s a bubonic plague-like pathogen that hits our species? What if there’s a huge chunk of planet that hits the Earth before we have a chance to do anything about it?

There’s always something to worry about. It’s just that climate change is not a very likely one.