In our culture, we operate collectively, involuntarily. In our public words and deeds we reveal our preferences, biases, manias, and other quirks. Nowhere is this tendency more obvious than in our society-wide behaviors surrounding the very idea of climate change. There are a few true believers piloting the ship, and everyone else is on board, most willingly, a few others not.
As individuals we suffer from limited perceptual range, but our minds always give us the illusion of omniscience. This is the basic mechanism by which we fool ourselves so easily. We fool ourselves into believing we have complete knowledge because knowing we don’t have complete knowledge would probably lead to paralyzing doubt. Our ancestors who were paralyzed by doubt were soon cleared from the genetic record.
A lot of climate catastrophism plays on our lack of perceptual depth and range to paint us a clear picture of things we are comprehensively incapable of grasping: The size of the planet, the complexity of its climate system, and the depths of the time scales involved.
Dissident earth scientist Matthew Wielicki sketches out part of the problem. A popular catastrophic trope involves depicting the geographic and geologic disaster to be imagined if climate change occurred all at once—firmly implying such a thing could occur. Thus, we are treated to the thrills of what the world will look like once all the snow and ice melt. The bad news: everyone living within miles of a coastline will be submerged in several tens of feet of water. The good news in reality: there are several tens of thousands of years for us to get out of the way.
The notion that accelerating sea level rise will drastically reduce the estimated 166,000 years needed to melt the polar ice caps at current rates embodies a misunderstanding of climate dynamics and timescales. While it appears true that global warming is contributing to an acceleration in sea level rise, primarily through the thermal expansion of seawater and increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets, this process is still governed by complex, long-term climatic cycles. The figure of 166,000 years is derived under current melt rates, which already account for some degree of acceleration. However, projections about melting rates and sea level rise are subject to a wide range of factors, including future greenhouse gas emissions, technological advancements, and climate mitigation efforts. The assertion that accelerated sea level rise will dramatically alter this timeline overlooks the inherent uncertainties in climate modeling and the natural variability of the climate system. Consider if the rate of sea level rise were to increase from 3 millimeters per year to 30 millimeters per year; in this scenario, we would have a timeframe of 16,000 years. How far has human civilization come in 16,000 years?
The cynic would point out that the distortions are intentionally magnified by interested parties eager to make money by encouraging panic. As a means of being cynical, this strikes me as quite useful. But it also always strikes me as a an argumentative wash. Usually there are interested parties eager to make money on all sides of every issue. The cynical view doesn’t really resolve anything, although it can lead to a certain sense of self-satisfaction of having seen through other people’s actual motivations. “Aha! I see what you’re up to!”
Still, unless you hope to keep your home and live in it for the next 16,000 years, it seems rather unlikely you have much to worry about. Even less than your neighbor who wants to keep living in his home for the next 166,000-odd years.
Observations from a trip to the store. 1) I'm happy we live in a country in which two public demonstrations on opposing sides can take place a block apart, and peacefully so. 2) Vegetarian BBQ Ribs simply cannot be a real thing. I'm not a biologist, but what vegetables have ribs? Why must the purveyors and consumers pretend they are ribs? Words matter, meaning matters and ribs they are not.
Good Sunday morning. Yesterday the House of Representatives finally did its job, passing several bills including the all-important aid package to Ukraine. Shockingly, just over half of the members of the party of Ronald Reagan voted against that package, including a certain dumb blonde from Georgia.