AI Phobia
This week’s Econtalk podcast was with tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, based on his recent essay (mentioned by Brian in the comments) Why AI Will Save the World. In the podcast, Andreessen considers the general fretting about AI not merely wrong, but on the verge of a doomsday cult.
The essay is a welcome provocation. It challenges the premises of AI critics and skeptics. The case in favor of the technology is a difficult one to make, since the natural human bias is towards negativity, evolved as we are to be on the lookout for existential threats. Andreessen addresses the fears of job losses, societal upheaval, increasing inequality, and criminal use, but heaps a heavy dose of scorn on the apocalyptic predictions. As he sees it, the worries too strongly resemble millenarian doomsday movements, this time for smart tech people who have never been anything but secular.
Doomsday cults most often end harmlessly, with members coming together socially and then moving away from society to live out their fantasies somewhere in the wilderness. On some occasions, such as the Jim Jones cult or the cult around Charles Manson, they threaten to harm lots of innocent bystanders in the process. Andreessen sees the parallel in calls from AI gloomsters to bomb computer data centers or even launch nuclear war in order to prevent an imagined worst-case AI apocalypse.
The Econtalk audio and transcript are here, the video is below:
The discussion of doomsday predictions in the podcast begins around the 29 minute, 30 second mark, in case you want to jump straight to the meatiest part. It differs a bit from Andreessen’s essay treatment of the so-called baptists-and-bootleggers coalition he sees at work among the most alarmed. That analogy refers to the unexpected collaboration between religious true believers and self-interested scofflaws who joined forces for the sake of banning alcohol during the prohibition era (1920 to 1933).
As for arguments in favor of letting AI development run its course without impediments from government, the podcast and essay cover the most obvious thought sequence: The technology is here, it cannot be stopped, and we will need it to contain the potential malign uses of AI. That is, AI is under development right now by hostile governments, criminal syndicates, and egregiously self-interested profiteers who are all employing the technological advancement for their own advantages. Setting a goal of restricting it by statute represents an act of futility.
Much of the case in favor of AI entails some guesswork as to the problems intelligence can help us solve and general life improvements it can spearhead. It assumes, based on similar prior moral panics, that none of the dire predictions will amount to much. Which could be the collective story of humanity so far. Rumors of our untimely demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Oh, a sad thing happened today...I went outside on one of breaks and there was a dead bird on the sidewalk in front of our door, it wasn't one I could identify, fairly small and greyish...at first I thought I saw it's legs twitch , but it's eyes looked cloudy, it was on it's side, obviously some predator didn't get it, so, bill thought maybe the poor thing hit our glass door...I thought they just got stunned, but, I guess some can die...So, I was sad ( and I couldn't move it, I thought maybe some scavenger might get it, and I guess that would what would happen in the wild)...and I am like, I wonder if they had family...and I tear up.
Bill made fun of me of course, and this is nature etc...and I told him, yes, I know, doesn't mean I have to be happy with it or watch it etc... I can't help it, it makes me sad
And I also told him this is why I am also kind to people...it's the empathy thing, and it is a good thing.
Just a quick Hi, I was too busy to get here today.
Today is Mac & Cheese Day, Classic Car Appreciation Day & Nude day....
I am glad the week end is here.
I agree with Mr Andersson...( and I assume you too Marque...lol)
You never answered my question about how to use it btw...lol