Criminal Overachievers
The Inquisitive Bird—great pseudonym, by the way—reports that a mere handful of violent criminals perpetrate the vast majority of violent crimes.
It is clear that people tend to have many arrests before being incarcerated. The data show, among persons admitted to state prison, more than 3 out of 4 have at least 5 prior arrests, including the arrest that resulted in their prison sentence. Going further into the tail: 46% (almost 1 in 2) had 10 or more prior arrests, 14% (1 in 7) had 20 or more prior arrests, and 5% (1 in 20) had 30 or more prior arrests. Indeed, having 30 or more prior arrests when admitted to state prison was more common than having no arrest other than the arrest that led to the prison sentence (i.e., 1 prior arrest). Further, it was more common to have 9 or more prior arrests than it was to have 8 or fewer.
That’s based on U.S. state prison statistics. The bird also cites (squawks?) sources pointing out that policing in the U.S. is understaffed relative to the total population and to the crime rate. I can’s say I would be surprised if this were the case. Even in a place with a relatively low cost of living, police pay is not all that appealing on its own.
Anecdotally, everyone I run into locally decries the fact that thefts (non-violent crimes, of course) seem to go unpunished, if the thieves can be caught successfully at all. But the property crimes that result in arrests contribute to the statistics behind the story. It seems likely that the mantra that the United States over-incarcerates relative to other countries elides the question as to whether the United States may actually not incarcerate enough.
Finally, the bird chirps that:
An implication of the fact that most crimes are committed by repeat offenders is that there are more victims than offenders3. More people get robbed than there are robbers, more victims of rape than there are rapists4, and so on. More generally, few people can cause great harm to society at large. Of course, the victims themselves experience this damage most directly. But the harms of crime extend beyond those directly affected.
It isn’t so much that incarceration helps as a deterrence or as a means of reform, but most likely serves to keep harmful people away from the rest of society.
The statistics also appear to support one theory of negativity bias: that a “bad apple” can spoil the bushel. Just as one coworker with a bad attitude can render a workplace unproductive, so a violent criminal can presumably make a much larger neighborhood feel unsafe for most residents.
Moved to Ohio for my Dad’s job when I was in 8th grade, after HS and college and my first job, moved to TX to get away from the cold and try life in the big city (Houston). Had no job or even prospects but friends helped me out until I got my feet on the ground.
Without writing a book about all the reasons for this, I'll just put it out there that I believe the U.S. *under incarcerates*. By a lot.
Setting aside the demographics of those actually incarcerated and for what types of crimes, as a whole I believe the majority of criminals who *should* go to jail do not, and many of the ones that do go are not kept there nearly long enough, being released before *serving* any amount of time that actually looks like justice due not to any so-called rehabilitation they may have undergone, but to prison *overcrowding*.
As noted, there are myriad reasons for this, but the one that I see as most responsible is not a *too progressive* stance from the courts and other elements of the criminal justice system, though there is that element in some form in many instances. Rather, it's the fact that we, as a society, are not willing to foot the financial bill for a prison system up to the task of delivering the end stage of *justice* at scale and in sufficient quantity.
When's the last time anyone here - MYSELF INCLUDED - contacted a congressman or senator at a state or national level and demanded that their taxes be raised so new and *more* prisons can be built, staffed and operated? Notice I made it conspicuous I'm not letting myself off the hook here.
It's said that some fortunate defendants with the means to do so can *buy* their justice. I won't gainsay that. But for the rest of us, if we want fewer criminals lurking about and doing harm in our society, we're going to have to admit that we need to *buy* some justice for them as well.